By noon on June 30, a new administration takes over our government. A new season in our governance begins.
Like any transition, there’ll be hopes and dread. We pray — for our sakes, and our nation’s sake — that those joyed would prove right, and those dreading would prove wrong.
The question is, how might we tell who’ll be proved right, and who’ll be proved wrong?
In an age of “murky truth” when an X could be convincingly portrayed a Y, what would serve as our verifiable measure for who’ll be right, and who’ll be wrong?
A measure could be anything. It could be personal, like having the potholes in our street being finally patched. Or it could be about matters that affect everyone in the country, like the PiTiK (presyo, trabaho, kita) of former NEDA Sec. Ciel Habito; these three hit everyone’s pulses and purses whether they know it or not:
1. Would average annual inflation (a measure of price) in the next six years be higher or lower than in the last, say, 12 years (or two presidential administrations)? It was 3.05 percent in 2010-2021.1
2. Would unemployment rates in the next six years be higher or lower than in the last 12 years? It was 7.3 percent in 2010; 7 percent in 2011; about 5.5 percent in 2019; 10.7 percent in 2020; and 7.8 percent in 2021; or around 6-7 percent in 2010-2021.1
3. Would the ratio of household expenditures against income, and their level of equality across all Filipinos be higher or lower than in the last 12 years? It was 1.22 in 2012; 1.24 in 2015; and 1.31 in 2018; the Gini coefficient (a measure of income equality where 1.00 is full equality) in 2012 was 0.4605; 0.4439 in 2015; 0.4267 in 2018; and 0.4414 in the first half of 2021.2
Prices, jobs, and family incomes and expenditures are affected by government debts, its budget for services (that affect our individual well-being), and by corruption. We could add these as measures.
4. How much would our national debt increase or decrease when compared to the last 12 years? It was 75 percent of GDP in 2006; 39 percent in 2019; and 61 percent in 2021. (Sixty percent of GDP is considered a “safe” threshold of total debts.)2
In per capita terms, it was US$1,065 in 2010; US$1,205 in 2015; US$1,717 in 2020; and US$2,055 in 2021; a 48 percent increase from 2010 to 2021.3
5. How much of our national budget in the next six years would go to fund services (like health and education), as against in the last 12 years? The DOH budget in 2010 was P26 billion; P50 billion in 2015; and P101 billion in 2021.4
Total national and local government spending on education in 2010 was P254.1 billion; P326.7 billion in 2015; P352.8 billion in 2017; and P531.1 in 2019 (at 2012=100).5
6. How much would corruption lessen or worsen when compared to the last 12 years? We were ranked 105th out of 180 countries in perception of corruption in the public sector in 2010; 95th in 2015; and 115th in 2020.6
How these measures would turn out will depend on global and domestic conditions affecting the country during a President’s tenure. President Cory had her coups. President Ramos had a power crisis and the Spratly and Asian financial crises.
The incoming President would inherit an economy upended by CoViD, higher energy and food prices due to the Ukraine war, and a drying- up of easy loans and low interests as the US Fed tightens monetary policy after 12 years of expansion.7
Climate crisis, market turbulence, and tighter supply chain constraints could add to these difficulties to make the global economy face “its ‘biggest test’ since WWII” and puts it at “the edge of a precipice”.8
The six measures are basic to a country’s well-being. It’s expected that a President (any President) knows how to navigate the slew of challenging conditions during his or her term to make sure that the measures turn out well for the country. The measures stay relevant across Presidents.
How will these six measures turn out in the next six years? Your guess is as good as mine.
My take: Having measures would be an exercise of responsible citizenship in a democracy. With measures, we could assess, together, how we’ve been well served by our collective (“majority wins”) electoral choices.
Then we’d know for sure if our joy today has been well-placed, and our dread, dead wrong.
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1. Habito, C. 2022. Personal communication.
2. Philippine Statistics Authority. https://psa.gov.ph sites/default/files/ FIES 2018 Final Report.pdf; https://psa.gov.ph/ content/ average-family-income-2015-estimated-22-thousand-pesos-monthly-results-2015-family-income; https://psa.gov.ph/sites/ default/files/ 2012%20FIES%20%28Final%20 Report%29.pdf]
3. Philippines National Debt 2021|countryeconomy.pdf
4. Department of Health. https://doh.gov.ph/sites/default/files/publications/ 2021-Budget-Briefer.pdf)
5. Abrigo, M. PIDS. https://pidswebs.pids.gov.ph/CDN/PUBLICATIONS/pidsdps2127.pdf
6. https://tradingeconomics.com/philippines/ corruption-rank c.f. Transparency International]
7.Bernardo, R. Personal communication.
8.Horowitz, J. CNN Business (May 23, 2022, citing IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Davos, Switzerland.