There were naturally mixed reactions to the recent survey results — dismay or relief — depending on one’s choice.
The May 9 elections are just about 77 days away, and in the latest Social Weather Stations survey on people’s first preference for President, (administered from Jan. 19 to 24), Bongbong Marcos was in the lead with 60 percent; Leni Robredo placed second with 16 percent; Manny Pacquiao and Isko Moreno with 8 percent; Ping Lacson at 4 percent.
Did you believe the survey results by the SWS?
Founded on Aug. 8, 1985 as an independent, private, non-stock, non-profit institution, the Social Weather Stations is a research institution, public opinion polling body in the Philippines. Its mission is to regularly do scientific social surveys for the sake of knowing.
Its basic functions include: social analysis and research, with stress on social indicators and the development of new data sources; design and implementation of social, economic, and political surveys, including public opinion polls; and the dissemination of research findings through publications, seminars, briefings, and other channels.
Of late, the manner in which the SWS survey was conducted, its credibility, and reliability of the results are being questioned.
In an interview with ANCX, Pulse Asia President Ronald Holmes explained that their sampling design is probabilistic, which means that they apply random sampling at every stage of the survey. “Probabilistic sampling means that every Filipino has the same chance to be selected as any respondent.”
“The general rule before you claim that a survey is ‘representative of the entire population’ is that the selection of the samples has to be done in a random manner, regardless of the sample size,”says Holmes.
Why only interview 1,200 respondents against an adult population of over 60 million?
The Pulse Asia Chief explains that this sample size is enough to achieve the confidence level of 95 percent, with a margin of error of positive (+) or negative (-) 2.8 they are aiming for.
Before going to the barangays, Holmes stated that the trained interviewers first list down all the adult members of the household. The one to be interviewed for that household depends on the last digit of the questionnaire. If the last digit is an even number, a female in the household is randomly selected to be interviewed; if the last digit of the questionnaire is an odd number, a male family member is selected, under the standard protocol via face-to-face interview, but observing the necessary safety measures, to preserve the integrity of the survey.
In a statement, Robredo’s spokesperson Barry Gutierrez said, “VP Leni’s stellar performance in those game-changing interviews added to the massive rallies that have come out for her during this first week of the official campaign, give us confidence that she has the clear momentum. We have no doubt this will be reflected in the coming surveys, and of course, on election day.”
The changing preference of voters is influenced to a large extent by the events preceding the conduct of the surveys.
Voters’ attitudes change as circumstances change.
Let us all vote wisely.
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