The return of the controversial Donald Trump to the White House has impacted minds across major Asian capitals.
On the surface, Manila has been generally upbeat about the direction of bilateral relations since, as stated by Philippine Ambassador to Washington Jose “Babe” Romualdez, there is robust bipartisan support for expanded strategic cooperation between the two century-old allies regardless of who occupies the White House.
Under a second Trump presidency, his Secretary of State Marco Rubio has identified the Philippines as a vital “frontline ally” in an intensified great power competition with China.
Rubio said “the promotion of peace, and the avoidance of conflict” will be at the center of Trump’s foreign policy approach.
A vocal critic of China’s behavior in the Indo-Pacific region and Beijing’s persecution of the Uyghur minority, Rubio also campaigned to restrict Chinese business operations in the US, like TikTok and Huawei.
As a former US senator, he filed a bill to bolster US-Philippine security cooperation, and also supports the transfer of nuclear technology to foreign allies to strengthen force projection against US adversaries.
On the other hand, economic analysts opined that the second term of a Trump presidency could add more uncertainty to the Philippine economy, which could possibly impact trade prospects, financial flows, and monetary policy.
Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on imports of Chinese goods, 25 percent for Canadian and Mexican imports, as well as a 10 percent universal tariff.
The Philippines, which is heavily reliant on the US for business and economic activity, could also stand to gain from some of Mr. Trump’s policies, with timely economic policy adjustments.
But his “America First” approach could throw a monkey wrench into the Philippines’ growing security ties in the region.
Trump has depicted Japan and South Korea, friends of the Philippines on security issues, as “freeloaders” who must pay more for US military support or lose it. He also believes Taiwan should pay the US ‘protection money’.
Trump’s incendiary campaign diatribes against 11 million undocumented immigrants will definitely morph into vigorous enforcement, posing a direct and palpable danger to immigrants, including some 300,000 Filipinos (a conservative estimate) who have no documents, will be strictly implemented by Immigration Czar Tom Homan, a long-time anti-immigration hawk.
This policy will have the biggest impact on Filipinos with his issuance of an executive order on “Day One” ending “chain migration,” a derogatory term favored by immigration opponents to describe the right of all US citizens to petition family members for permanent residency, and eventual citizenship.
Petitioning family members is the engine of continued Filipino immigration to the United States where they now number more than 4.1 million. And 71 percent of Filipino immigrants who received a green card in the US in 2021 did so through family reunification.
To block this immigration channel, Trump mulls blocking all US citizens from sponsoring parents, siblings, or adult children to settle in the US, a drastic change from current law.
I now wonder how Trump’s goal to Make America Great Again (MAGA) will be realized.
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