There are 10. This week, two:
Celsius. Earth’s surface is heating up. Say what you want about why, but these are the facts: “In 2019, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.71°F (0.95°C) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C, making it the second warmest year on record. The global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 57.0°F (0.07°C) per decade since 1880, and over twice that rate (+0.18°C/+0.32°F) since 1981.The five warmest years in the 1880—2019 record have all occurred since 2015, while nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2005. From 1900 to 1980, a new temperature record was set on average every 13.5 years; since 1981, it has increased to every three years.” (R. Lindsey and L. Dahlman, NOAA Climate.gov. Jan 16, 2020).
The implications of these? For one, seas are rising due to melting ice caps, and to the albedo effect (expansion of ocean water molecules when heated). Low elevation land areas would be eventually under water, some say by 2100. (T. Lakritz, 2019, in https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/11-sinking-cities-that-could-soon-be-underwater/).
For another, seas are heating up and raising acidity levels that are smothering corals, and impairing the productivity of shallow waters, which serve as gardens of our seas.
These threaten our major source of protein, and our food and nutrition security, worldwide, because for many people, especially those living in coastal areas, fisheries are a major source of food and nutrition.
Still another implication: hotter sea surfaces are fueling typhoons. Stronger and more frequent typhoons are posing greater risks to lives and properties.
Conflagrations. You know this. Something to do with rising Celsius. Fires everywhere. In Australia, the Amazon, Siberia, western United States, Europe, Africa, even in the Arctic.
With long spells of hotter days, wildland litter and debris get drier. Careless campfires, reckless flecking of cigarette butts, and lightning, could ignite large wildfires. Reports T. Schauenberg in December 2019: “Australia isn’t the only place which is burning… (there have been ) over 4.5 million fires worldwide that were larger than one square kilometer. That’s a total of 400,000 more fires than 2018… the number of fires and their size varies from year to year, but the big trend is that the risk of fire is increasing globally.” (c.f. Global Forest Watch Fires & S. Winter of the Forest Program of World Wide Fund in Germany, in https://p.dw.com/p/3Vswe).
The implication of this? For one, costs. Using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, Liu et al. (2010) “suggest dramatic increases in wildfire potential that will require increased future resources and management efforts for disaster prevention and recovery.” (Forest Ecology and Management Volume 259, Issue 4, 5 February 2010, Pages 685-697).
Two catastrophes. But the good news is: people are doing something about them. Trying their best to reduce our risks and vulnerabilities to them. With faith on them, and on God, we look forward to their successes.
Week after next, another two…. (To be discussed in a series of columns following this series on catastrophes we face.)
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