President Duterte is currently visiting Russia upon the invitation of his “favorite hero” Vladimir Putin.
Duterte and Putin first met in Peru during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in November 2016. It can be recalled that the President cut short his official visit to Russia back in May 2017 due to a terror attack in Marawi City.
Duterte’s second visit to Russia this time could mean “further improved relations between the two countries,” Presidential Spokesperson Salvador Panelo said.
What does this mean for our country and our foreign alliances? What can the Philippines expect from its closer ties with Putin and Russia?
In a recent policy workshop held by Washington, D.C., scholars and analysts addressed this broad question and related issues, including the outlook for Putin’s fourth term as president, the expected impacts of sanctions, and some aspects of Russian foreign policy.
With Russia’s political and economic environment arguably the most challenging the Kremlin has faced in years, the points that resonated the most at the workshop were that Putin will maintain his power through the end of his term (and possibly beyond 2024), will likely implement policies to combat his falling approval ratings, and will continue shifting Russia toward new partnerships — mainly in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
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Prospects for U.S.-Russian relations were generally seen as grim, although one historically-minded scholar provided a spark of optimism for the future, saying that America’s current turmoil could lead to more normal relations sooner than commonly believed.
That the regime remains quite strong, noting there are some “very capable people” working in the Kremlin, and that pension controversies, lower living standards, and economic difficulties, notwithstanding, most Russians accepted that Putin will remain firmly in power over his next six years.
That while sanctions have heightened the political risk involved in doing business with Russia, and as such, have scared off many Western companies, overall, the analysts discussing Russia’s economy and its great-power status generally agreed that sanctions are here to stay, as did those discussing Russia’s foreign policy and its impacts.
Russia has moved closer to Southeast Asia as part of an overall “turn east” that began after the 2008 financial crisis. The goals of this move are many — to avoid over-dependence on the West, to modernize the Russian Far East, to find markets for Russian weapons and resources, and so on.
The discussion of Russia-U.S. relations was dominated by sanctions, and outlook was relatively bleak.
Are we ready to turn away from our pro-US alliances? Are we ready to embrace the Russians as partners for progress? Or are we already tied up with China? Yes, ka-kabayans, we have entered a Brave New World. Be prepared for an interesting journey.
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Author’s email: [email protected]
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