In a recent interview, Vice President Leni Robredo stated that the Ukraine-Russia conflict could be compared to the tension between the Philippines and China concerning China’s repeated aggression against Filipino fisherfolk and its incursions into our country’s exclusive economic zone in the West Philippine Sea, given that the Philippines is also stacked against China’s superior military might.
China did not participate in the international arbitration process, and has since refused to recognize the court ruling, which junked its claims in 2016.
Like the Philippines and its ASEAN neighbors, Taiwan knows what it’s like to have an overbearing neighbor. “If the Western powers fail to respond to Russia, they do embolden the Chinese thinking, regarding action on Taiwan,” said Lai I-chung, president of the Prospect Foundation in Taiwan’s capital, Taipei.
Currently, the tension has heightened as the US and the UK have threatened sanctions against Russian firms owned by those close to Russian President Vladimir Putin in connection with the build-up of Russian troops on its shared border with Ukraine.
Ukraine gained its independence in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Following its independence, Ukraine declared itself a neutral state, with a population of 41.3 million, becoming the eighth-most populous country in Europe.
EU foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell had said that Europe is going through its most dangerous moment since the Cold War, amid fear of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
What are its implications to the Philippines? Commentators have drawn parallels between this case and Philippines vs. China, but key differences remain.
On Sept. 16, 2016, Ukraine instituted proceedings against Russia under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), requesting that the tribunal declare that Russia violated the Convention by interfering with Ukraine’s rights in maritime zones adjacent to Crimea.
The Philippines filed its suit against China in 2013, which was resolved in 2016.
In both cases, a less powerful state is suing a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council. In both cases, the less powerful state has brought the case before a tribunal under UNCLOS. And in both cases, the tribunal’s exercise of jurisdiction over the dispute arguably implicates issues of territorial sovereignty.
A move by the Kremlin would also ripple far beyond the two nations’ shared border.
Experts fear it could usher in a new era of uncertainty, disrupt supply chains and the global economy, and force a shift in geopolitical influence that damages the credibility of the West.
Ukraine is one of the world’s four major grain exporters — which account for around a sixth of the world’s corn imports. A direct hit to its production and output could impact the supply of certain foodstuffs.
In addition, there is a wider potential impact on energy supplies, and the consequences of tough Western sanctions on Russia, a major energy supplier.
Now, diplomatic efforts are on overdrive to seek a peaceful settlement.
Let us pray for peace.
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